Prediction Accuracy

Hi ,

I am a novice Data Mining Programmer.

I am using Time series algorithm for forecasting.

We are Quite concerned about the accuracy of Prediction output.

For Example Our Data is like this

StudIdDatePerf

00101/01/200190

00102/01/200189

00103/01/200187

00201/01/200159

00202/01/200170

00303/01/200147

If I write my Prediction Query to predict for 100 th time step.Its giving me out put like

DatePerf

03/01/201547.000000115

We are not sure about the accuracy of the values. Is it possible to use trend information as input to my model and make my prediction based on that.

I don’t know how to do that? Can anyone help?

Thanks,

Karthik.

The time series algorithm in SQL Server 2005 - ARTxp is designed for near term prediction accuracy, not far term - e.g. 100 steps. You can get details on the research behind the algorithm at http://research.microsoft.com/~dmax/publications/dmart-final.pdf